The Big OneModels & Labs
METR says Anthropic is likely improving its models at about twice its earlier rate
METR says that as of October 2026 Anthropic is likely improving its models' capabilities on well-specified tasks at around twice the rate it did between March 2024 and October 2025, with high uncertainty. METR says a majority of the acceleration is likely attributable to Anthropic's extensive use of AI to do R&D. Anthropic redacted a majority of the evidence METR found most informative.
NoteBanks that build on frontier models should expect the upgrade cycle to be uneven and keep their own model testing ready for each new release. METR also says the public has to rely on its judgment more than would be ideal.
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