Tuesday, 27 October 202613:10 UTCWire updated 13:10 UTC

Follow @0xNotMarc

Notes from the Terminal
Delayed ·

Vol. I No. 29AI in finance, before the market opensSeven o'clock edition

“What changed in AI and finance overnight.”

The Morning Note

Anthropic opens its books as Musk warns on AI debt

Anthropic's filing, Musk's neocloud warning and an Apollo economist's view sit beside a bank buying the AI startup it has worked with.

Anthropic opens its books

Anthropic filed its Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission and said it intends to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol "ANT", with the price range not yet determined. In the filing, Anthropic said its revenue for the six months ended June 30 was $16.3 billion, and it reported a net loss of $80.7 billion, which TechCrunch says was largely driven by noncash accounting adjustments tied to convertible debt.

Itaú agrees to buy the AI startup it has worked with

Itaú Unibanco entered into a Share Purchase Agreement for all shares of NeoSpace, a Brazilian artificial intelligence startup that has been developing models trained on Itaú's proprietary data for nearly two years. The purchase price will be BRL 2,925,000,000.00, with an installment payable at closing and the rest deferred over five years, and Itaú says the relationship has already delivered results in credit, CRM (customer relationship management) and fraud prevention. Closing is subject to approval by the Brazilian Antitrust Authority (CADE) and the Central Bank of Brazil.

The payoff question outside tech

Torsten Slok, the chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said AI "has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech". He focuses on what he calls the S&P 493, the S&P 500 minus Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla, and finds that profit margins and revenue per worker appear to be flat.

Musk says debt nearly shut for firms without other revenue

Elon Musk said on X that debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn't have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers, and that more than 200 neoclouds will see "guppy-level death and consolidation". Musk's SpaceX operates its own data centers through which it sells computing capacity, and CNBC describes it as a direct competitor to the neoclouds, which also rent compute. CNBC adds that CoreWeave and Nebius are down more than 30% over the past month.

What we can watch

Put side by side, these four stories each concern how AI is paid for or what it returns. For those of us in credit and risk, the practical questions are which AI suppliers we rely on, how they are financed, and whether the gains we are promised show up in our own margins.